Relación entre la Canícula y las temperaturas de la superficie del mar del Atlántico Tropical Norte y Niño 3.4: Desarrollo de un modelo empírico de pronóstico para la parte oriental de El Salvador
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Date
2003
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Tópicos Meteorológicos y Oceanográficos
Abstract
A relative rainfall minimum between June and August, known as “Veranillo” or “Canícula”, occurs almost every
year in the oriental region of El Salvador.
A qualitative analysis shows that in June rainfall anomalies are not clearly related to conditions in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and the Northern Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Nevertheless, the data corresponding to the lower third (dry scenario) indicate that in the NTA cold events occur with some frequency. Because of this variability it is difficult to develop a model.
The rainfall negative anomalies during the period July-August appear to be modulated in large part by warm events in the Tropical Pacific (Niños), particularly those classified as very strong, strong and moderate events. On the other hand, in such a dry scenario, there is an important occurrence of cold events in the NTA.
The droughts recorded in the oriental region of El Salvador, which have produced significant agricultural losses, result in most of the cases by a great rainfall deficit in June and in July-August, which have been related to the occurrence of warm events in the Pacific (El Niño) and cold events in the NTA.
An empirical forecast model is develop for July-August, which is recommended to be tested before be operatively used.
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García, L. y Fernández, W. (2003). Relación entre la Canícula y las temperaturas de la superficie del mar del Atlántico Tropical Norte y Niño 3.4: Desarrollo de un modelo empírico de pronóstico para la parte oriental de El Salvador. Tópicos Meteorológicos y Oceanográficos, 10(2): 69-74.